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Forecasts for the Nations and Regions of the UK
How are the forecasts produced?
The forecasts are produced using CE's Multisectoral Dynamic Model-E3 (MDM-E3) and the intelligence gathered from a network of regional experts.
MDM-E3 is distinguished from most other UK models by its degree of 'disaggregation', the extent to which it breaks the economy down into different sectors. Some 41 industries (30 regional industries) and 12 regions (see below) are distinguished as integral parts of a single model, making MDM-E3 the largest model of the UK economy. Because the model solves 'bottom-up' by adding regional projections together, it does not suffer from the discrepancies between regional and macro totals that can require scaling to enforce consistency in a two-model approach. It produces consistent macroeconomic, industrial, regional and financial forecasts, which are provided together in one service.
Regional experts from business, government and academia provide intelligence on factors such as company strategies, regional and local policy and recent major investments that could make future outturns differ from past experience.
MDM-E3 comprehensively covers the 9 English Government Office regions plus Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It provides annual projections to the year 2020 for GVA, employment, income, spending, investment, unemployment, migration, population, housing starts and number of households.
The UK countries/regions distinguished are:
| 1 | London | 7 | Yorkshire & the Humber |
| 2 | South East | 8 | North West |
| 3 | East of England | 9 | North East |
| 4 | South West | 10 | Wales |
| 5 | West Midlands | 11 | Scotland |
| 6 | East Midlands | 12 | Northern Ireland |
The level of industrial disaggregation currently published for output and employment is as follows:
| 1 | Agriculture | 16 | Motor vehicles |
| 2 | Coal | 17 | Other transport equipment |
| 3 | Oil & natural gas | 18 | Other manufacturing |
| 4 | Other mining | 19 | Electricity, gas & water |
| 5 | Food, drink & tobacco | 20 | Construction |
| 6 | Textiles, clothing & leather | 21 | Distribution |
| 7 | Wood & wood products | 22 | Retailing |
| 8 | Paper, printing & publishing | 23 | Hotels & catering |
| 9 | Manufactured fuels | 24 | Transport & communications |
| 10 | Chemicals & man-made fibres | 25 | Banking & finance |
| 11 | Rubber & plastic products | 26 | Insurance |
| 12 | Non-metallic mineral products | 27 | Other business services |
| 13 | Basic metals & metal products | 28 | Public administration & defence |
| 14 | Mechanical engineering | 29 | Education & health |
| 15 | Electronics, electrical, instrument engineering | 30 | Other services |
The Department for Education and Employment maintains a website with a database and commentary on Labour Market Information, Skills and Education. The website provides projections prepared by Cambridge Econometrics and the Institute for Employment Research at Warwick University and is available from UKCES (UK Commission for Employment and Skills).
For further information, including prices, and to order the service, email:
Katerina Homenidou
Associate Director