Cambridge Econometrics
Cambridge Econometrics is an independent consultancy that applies economic modelling and data analysis techniques to the needs of clients in business and government. We are a leading independent economic forecasting group with a full portfolio of economic intelligence services covering the UK and the rest of Europe delivered through our Knowledge Base accessed via this website, and a substantial consultancy capability.
This page shows a selection of some of our work. You can access the full range through the site menus.
A jobless recovery is expected for UK cities
Recent indicators have shown output to be on the rise across the UK; however job figures are not yet increasing with the same vigour, and this is expected to continue in the medium term.
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Slow growth to 2015 will be accompanied by a widening of the North-South Divide
Over the period 2010-15 UK Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to rise by an average of 2% per annum, with growth peaking at 2¼% in 2011 but falling back to 2% pa or less over 2012-15. The performance of the UK nations and regions over this period will vary and the North-South Divide is forecast to widen on several measures. Over 2010-15 GVA is expected to grow faster in London, the South East and East of England (at 2¼% - 2½% pa), while growth in all other regions is expected to lag behind the UK average.
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Slow growth to 2015 raises the risk that unemployment will pick up again and remain high
GVA is expected to show a modest recovery in 2010 and to accelerate in 2011 thanks to rebounds in manufacturing, transport & communications and financial & business services. Slow growth to 2015 raises the risk that unemployment will pick up again and remain high.
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What might the UK economy be like in future?
From the BBC website
"We asked the forecasting group Cambridge Econometrics to look at the future shape of the economy. Its modelling incorporates the important measures set out in the June Budget, for example the spending cuts and VAT increase.
The Cambridge forecasts are intriguing..."
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Taxing carbon: worth a go
From The Economist website:
"THIS week, in advance of its "emergency budget" on June 22nd, we wrote about how Britain might close its deficit, which currently stands at 11.1% of GDP. One idea we advocated was a carbon tax. We commissioned some modeling on the subject from Cambridge Econometrics (who have a model specifically designed for this sort of thing)... "
(Read more and the summary article published in the magazine.)