Cambridge Econometrics
Cambridge Econometrics is an independent consultancy that applies economic modelling and data analysis techniques to the needs of clients in business and government. We are a leading independent economic forecasting group with a full portfolio of economic intelligence services covering the UK and the rest of Europe delivered through our Knowledge Base accessed via this website, and a substantial consultancy capability.
This page shows a selection of some of our work. You can access the full range through the site menus.
December 2011
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills has published the results of the 'Working Futures 2010-2020' study
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills has published the results of the
Working Futures 2010-2020 study, which has been carried out by Cambridge Econometrics in collaboration with the Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick.
Working Futures 2010-2020 is the fourth in a series of labour market assessments that provide detailed projections for the UK labour market. It focuses on a ten year horizon, providing a picture of the labour market in the UK for 2020. The core purpose of Working Futures is to inform policy development and strategy around skills, careers and employment.
The results provide an insight into the prospects for:
- The sectoral pattern of output and employment
- The occupational structure of employment
- The magnitude and pattern of job openings across the economy, taking into account employment growth and replacement demands
- The demand and supply of qualifications
- The labour markets of the regions and nations of the UK.
The main report provides a detailed analysis against all of these key questions and is supplemented by a sectoral report and a full technical report.
The report is available
here.
December 2011
Environmental Components of Economic Recovery
The European Commission has published our assessment of the environmental components of Europe’s fiscal stimulus packages over 2008-10. Undertaken in collaboration with Ecorys, our approach combined macroeconomic modelling with more flexible quantitative and qualitative analysis. The assessment covered a range of policies, including investment plans, tax cuts and vehicle scrappage schemes. The results showed generally positive economic and environmental outcomes but highlighted a trade-off between policies that provided an immediate economic boost (e.g. car scrappage schemes) with those that provided long-term environmental benefits (e.g. investment in energy efficiency).
The report is available
here.
December 2011
Sectoral Unit Labour Costs and European Competitiveness
DG Enterprise and Industry has published our study (carried out with CESifo, Munich) on trends in sectoral unit labour costs and the implications for European Competitiveness. The study assembled a database of unit labour costs for manufacturing industries and selected service sectors for the EU countries and global competitors (including Brazil, China, India and Russia), and constructed real effective exchange rates from these data to summarise trends. The study sheds light on the competitive weaknesss of the eurozone economies now under pressure, and on the importance of including the BRICs in the assessment of competitiveness. For more details click here.
December 2011
The Durban Trade and Climate Change Symposium
Cambridge Econometrics and Climate Strategies organised a panel session on ‘Embodied emissions, carbon leakage and border adjustments’ at the Durban Trade and Climate Change Symposium. The session presented the findings of recent policy analysis undertaken by Climate Strategies and Cambridge Econometrics, with a view to enhancing the global policy debate. The panel session was part of a symposium organised by the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, the World Trade Organisation and the Department for Trade and Industry (DTI) in South Africa.
For more details, click here.
Programme (pdf)
Flyer (pdf)
October 2011
DECC launches Housing Energy Fact File
In mid-October, the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) launched the Housing Energy Fact File, a report written by Cambridge Architectural Research in collaboration with Cambridge Econometrics. The Housing Energy Fact File presents the energy and carbon characteristics of Great Britain’s housing stock, and in doing so highlights the importance of the forthcoming ‘Green Deal’ to reduce energy consumption in homes.
For more details, click here.
October 2011
Emissions-reduction targets for Scotland
One of the responsibilities of the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) is to give advice to the devolved administrations of the UK on appropriate emissions-reduction targets. CE is providing support to the CCC in the form of the Scenario Tool for Emissions Projections in Scotland (STEPS) which projects CO2 emissions from devolved administrations’ non-traded sectors to 2030. New model projections were used to inform the CCC’s most recent advice to the Scottish Government, including advice on targets for 2023-27.
For further information, contact Chris Thoung, Senior Economist.
October 2011
SME Performance in Europe
The European Commission launched its latest review of SME performance in Europe during European SME Week 2011 in October. The analysis, carried out by Ecorys and Cambridge Econometrics provides an overview of the size, structure and importance of SMEs to the European economy and considers the short-term prospects for the sector. Comparisons are made with important partner countries outside the EU.
Click here to access the report.
August 2011
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills launches 'Rebalancing the Economy Spatially and Sectorally: An Evidence Review'
Cambridge Econometrics (CE), in collaboration with SQW, the Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies (CURDS), and the Institute for Employment Research (IER), were commissioned by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) to undertake research on 'rebalancing the economy sectorally and spatially'. The study reviewed existing national and international evidence regarding the rationale for government intervention in the structure of the economy with the intention of building a strong and sustainable economy, balanced geographically and sectorally. In addition to contributing to the review of data and literature, CE used its regional multisectoral economic model, MDM-E3, to project the likely economic feasibility and consequences of policies designed to alter the balance of the UK economy; the analysis highlighted what would need to be done to achieve better macroeconomic and sectoral balance, and the remaining spatial challenges that would need to be addressed.
For further information contact Rachel Beaven, Director.
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills evidence report is published here.
July 2011
Renewable UK launches the second volume of its employment study on the wind and marine sector
Renewable UK and Energy & Utility Skills commissioned Cambridge Econometrics, the Warwick Institute for Employment Research and IFF Research to assess future opportunities for employment and skills in the wind and marine energy sector. The second volume of the report was launched in July and presents the results of the employment projections model of the wind and marine energy sector developed by CE.
For more details click here, or contact info@camecon.com
July 2011
The Committee on Climate Change launches its 3rd Annual Progress Report
In June the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) launched its 3rd Annual Progress report to Parliament on Meeting Carbon Budgets. To inform some of their recommendations the CCC commissioned Cambridge Econometrics to undertake an analysis of the DECC Energy Model, and to review approaches to energy modelling more broadly...
(Read more...)
May 2011
The decline in UK's carbon emissions is set to accelerate after 2020 as power generation makes good progress towards de-carbonisation
Our forecast explained
On our latest projections extended for the first time to 2025:
- the recession delivered a sharp fall in carbon emissions in 2009, but the rise in 2010, driven by increases in emissions from households, industry and commerce, is a warning signal as the Coalition strives to be the ‘greenest government ever’
(Read more...)
April 2011
If nuclear build does not go ahead, greater support measures will be needed to promote alternative low carbon sources
In the light of the nuclear crisis at the Fukushima plant in Japan, there has been much speculation as to whether new nuclear build will now go ahead. Recently the EU Energy Commissioner, Günther Oettinger, said that Europe needed to consider whether it could live without nuclear energy. To investigate the implications, we undertook a scenario analysis in MDM-E3.
(Read more...)
April 2011
Building, Broadening and Deepening the UK LMI Evidence Base
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills has published the second edition of its annual Almanac, written by Cambridge Econometrics (CE) and the Warwick Institute for Employment Research (IER). This provides a comparable, comprehensive, and robust labour market information resource alongside the Almanac Online project site.
(Read more...)
April 2011
Measuring the Economic Impact of Further Education
Cambridge Econometrics (CE), in collaboration with the Warwick Institute for Employment Research (IER), have developed a model for the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) to measure the economic impact of the further education (FE) sector.
The economic impact is calculated from assumptions for the qualifications gained by learners and the return to these qualifications in terms of higher wages and employability. The model estimates the Net Present Value (calculated over the years in which successful learners remain in the workforce) of FE qualifications started in 2008/09 funded by the Department for those aged 19 and over at approximately £75bn.