Examples of projects using LEFM
| Project: | Support for North West Economic Forecasting Panel |
| Client: | Northwest Development Agency |
| Period: | 2004 - present |
This project, led by SQW, has provided ongoing support to the North West's independent Regional Economic Forecasting Panel in its analysis of regional economy and its future prospects and in the production of high-profile dissemination reports. The formal outputs each year comprise two short-term forecast reports reviewing prospects over the next three years, and a long-term report that considers prospects some 20 years out. In addition, over the period of our involvement we have sought with the Panel to deepen its understanding of the performance of the North West economy, to widen and develop the issues it considers and to develop it as an asset for the region and its policy makers. Topics that have been developed over time include the potential implications of city-regions to the prospects for the North West, the nature of the productivity gap with the UK as a whole, and the effects of in-migration on the long-term growth prospects of the region.
CE's specific responsibilities to the project include providing the core content of the short-term forecast reports drawing on contextual information on the future prospects for the world and UK economies, making high-level presentations at panel meetings to help members form a view on prospects, developing the Panel's subsequent forecasts for the North West and implementing these in a version of the Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) software for subsequent use by the NWDA, and developing and implementing the Panel's long-term forecasts as well as technical support to the Panel in developing and exploring the economic arguments.
| Project: | Employment Land Review for York |
| Client: | York City Council |
| Period: | 2006 |
CE developed a set of detailed economic forecasts for York using its
Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM), to inform this project, an
employment land review being undertaken by SQW Ltd for York City Council.
The basic projections from the model were developed by CE, in consultation
with SQW, to take into account growth expected to be generated by 'Science
City York', an initiative developed through a partnership between York
City Council and the University of York, which provides a range of
support services to assist in the creation and growth of technology-based
businesses, entrepreneurs and skills development opportunities.
| Project: | Braintree District Futures 2025 |
| Client: | Braintree District Council |
| Period: | 2006 |
This project, undertaken in collaboration with SQW Ltd, provided Braintree
District Council with a set of economic visions for the district, which
were used by the council to help determine a new 'direction and ambition'.
A review of the current position of Braintree was undertaken, and then
three alternative visions of the future for the district were developed:
'Business as Usual'; 'Braintree: Providing a Focus on Leisure, Heritage
and Nature'; and 'Braintree: Where Ideas Take Shape'. Descriptions
of Braintree district under each of the visions were provided, and
the visions were quantified using CE's Local Economy Forecasting Model
(LEFM). The visions were presented at a leadership workshop for members
of Braintree District Council, during which the implications for the
different areas of local policy were discussed. The results of the
workshop were used to develop the council's new economic strategy.
| Project: | Economic Forecasting for Cardiff |
| Client: | Cardiff Council |
| Period: | 2006 |
Cardiff Council asked CE to provide a review of the prospects for the
Cardiff economy, to be used by the council in developing its new economic
development strategy. The council needed to identify which sectors
the strategy should target, and so CE provided detailed (41 industries)
economic projections for Cardiff using its Local Economy Forecasting
Model (LEFM) tailored to the Cardiff economy. Clearly, Cardiff, as
Wales' capital, has an important role to play in driving economic growth
in South East Wales and Wales as a whole, and the new economic development
strategy needed to take account of this. The key policies from the
current local, sub-national and national economic strategies, which
will all have an impact on future economic growth, were reviewed in
the report, and conclusions were drawn from these and the economic
projections.
| Project: | Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Closure of BAT's Production Facilities in Southampton |
| Client: | Southampton City Council |
| Period: | 2005 - 2006 |
This project, undertaken in collaboration with SQW Ltd and BBP Regeneration,
analysed the socio-economic impact of the closure of British American
Tobacco's production facilities in Southampton planned to take place
over 2006-07. The project looked at the impact on the economy of Southampton
and the surrounding area, the impact on the local community, and the
development potential of the site that would become available. The
result of the project was a Mitigation Action Plan that was used by
the client in developing its response to the closure. CE's role was
to develop a version of the Local Economy Forecasting Model tailored
to the economy of the local area and use it to investigate the net
impact of the closure and subsequent development on output and employment
in Southampton and the surrounding area, taking account of local linkages
and the multiplier effects of the loss of employment.
| Project: | LEFM projections for East Lancashire |
| Client: | Elevate East Lancashire |
| Period: | 2005 |
Elevate East Lancashire is one of the government's nine housing market
renewal pathfinders, charged with finding innovative solutions to the
problem of low demand, negative equity, and housing market collapse
in towns across East Lancashire. CE used the Local Economy Forecasting
Model to provide the client with projections of output and employment
for East Lancashire, and the six local authorities within it, to provide
an economic context for its analysis of future housing needs.
| Project: | LEFM projections for Preston City Region |
| Client: | The Northern Way |
| Period: | 2005 |
The Northern Way was launched in 2004 by the three northern Regional
Development Agencies and their partners, to boost the economic and
social prosperity of the North. In order to inform its work, CE was
commissioned to produce economic projections to 2015 for the Preston
city region using the Local Economy Forecasting Model.
| Project: | Local Economy Assessment 2004 |
| Client: | Hertfordshire County Council |
| Period: | 2004 |
In this project CE provided Hertfordshire County Council and Hertfordshire
Prosperity with chapters on the economy, labour market and local authority
districts for their 2004 Local Economy Assessment. The work involved
analysis of historical data and projections from CE's Local Economy
Forecasting Model (LEFM) for Hertfordshire, to provide insight into
the current and future position of the Hertfordshire economy. The report
presented analysis of data and projections for Hertfordshire, the local
authority districts of Hertfordshire, the East of England, the South
East and the UK. The final report, entitled 'Understanding Hertfordshire:
the Local Economy Assessment 2004', was published on Hertfordshire
County Council's website.
| Project: | Multi-area LEFM for Merseyside |
| Client: | Liverpool City Council |
| Period: | 2004 |
This project delivered a multi-area application of CE's Local Economy
Forecasting Model (LEFM). The application enables detailed economic
scenarios to be developed and impact analysis to be undertaken for
the six districts of Greater Merseyside (Liverpool, Wirral, Sefton,
St Helens, Knowsley, Halton) and for Greater Merseyside as a whole.
In doing so it provides the client with a wide range of possible information
for its analysis of economic development in the area. The data and
projections from the models will be used to inform the client's economic
strategies. The client consists of a consortium of agencies and local
authorities. The lead client was provided with the full suite of models
for all areas, while each local authority was provided with the model
for their district. It is intended that the consortium will update
the suite of models on an annual basis, to keep pace with changes in
the economy and make use of up-to-date projections consistent with
CE's latest UK regional forecasts.
| Project: | Socio-Economic Impacts of Large-Scale Science Facilities |
| Client: | Yorkshire Forward |
| Period: | 2004 |
Yorkshire Forward had, in partnership with others, been campaigning to
bring the European Spallation Source (ESS) neutron-scattering research
centre to Yorkshire and had secured a site for the purpose. This study,
led by Arthur D Little (ADL), quantified the potential impact of a
major large-scale science facility, such as the ESS, on the Yorkshire
economy. CE's role in the project was to model the potential economic
impact of such a development on Yorkshire & the Humber through
the application of a version of the Local Economy Forecasting Model
(LEFM) software tailored to the regional economy. A series of alternative
scenarios was developed using information on typical construction costs
as well as the operating and purchasing characteristics of such a facility,
provided by ADL. CE also estimated the impact on the UK economy taking
into consideration the possible displacement effects that such a new
facility could have on existing research facilities.
| Project: | Regional Impact of Anglia Television |
| Client: | Anglia Television Ltd |
| Period: | 2002 |
In this project, CE assessed the impact that Anglia Television Ltd (part
of Granada Plc) has on the economy and society of the area in which
it operates.
The study focused on the economic impact of Anglia Television, by undertaking model-based scenarios using a version of CE's LEFM software tailored to the Anglia Television area. In addition, the study considered the wider contribution made by Anglia Television with respect to its cultural and public service contribution and community activity in the region. Anglia Television used the report as part of its communication to regional opinion formers in response to the Government's draft Communications Bill.
Commenting on the final report Anglia Television remarked that '...this has been one of the best of the reports that we have commissioned.'
| Project: | Economic Impact Assessment of Foot & Mouth Disease in the East of England |
| Client: | East of England Development Agency |
| Period: | 2001 |
This project, undertaken in collaboration with the Rural Business Unit
at the University of Cambridge, provided a rigorous and independent
assessment and understanding of the economic effect of the Foot & Mouth
Disease in the East of England. In doing so it assisted the regional
TaskForce in its submissions to government when seeking compensation
and in considering where, geographically and sectorally, available
compensation should be targeted.
The analysis developed a number of stylised scenarios to explore the range of uncertainties surrounding the longevity of the FMD outbreak and its economic impact and utilised the local survey and other intelligence to ensure the realism of the modelling exercise.
The project consisted of two broad tasks: developing estimates of the direct impact of FMD (specifically on agriculture, tourism and the food processing sectors) by county and incorporating the direct impact effects into an economic model of the East of England economy to estimate the indirect effects. The estimates of the direct impact of FMD were determined with considerable attention paid to the detailed composition of the sectors in the region. In the case of tourism, this meant considering the relative impact on the behaviour of different type of tourist (eg day tripper, overseas visitor etc) and, importantly, the extent to which tourism in one area of the region may have been displaced elsewhere in the region.
For further information, including prices, and to order the service, email:
Mike May-Gillings
Manager, UK Local Economy Services
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